Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerúndolo Prediction, Preview & Betting Odds – US Open 2025

The US Open first round features an exciting clash between Matteo Arnaldi and Francisco Cerúndolo at Flushing Meadows. Both men are dangerous from the baseline, but Cerúndolo enters with the better hard-court pedigree and recent big-match experience.

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Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerúndolo Match Info

• Tournament: US Open 2025
• Round: Men’s Singles, 1st Round
• Date/Time: [Match time to be confirmed – likely Aug 25, 2025]
• Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York (outdoor hard)
• Head-to-Head: First career meeting

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Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerúndolo Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Arnaldi +115 | Cerúndolo -135
• Game Handicap: Arnaldi +3.5 | Cerúndolo -3.5
• Total Games: Over/Under 38.5

*Odds referenced from market consensus at time of writing.

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Matteo Arnaldi Form and Recent Results

Arnaldi comes into New York with a mixed hard-court record. While he’s shown flashes of potential — particularly when his serve is firing — he hasn’t consistently beaten top-tier players on this surface. His game is heavy on topspin and built for clay, which can sometimes leave him vulnerable on the faster US Open hard courts. Still, his athleticism and shot tolerance make him a tricky opponent if Cerúndolo starts slow.

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Francisco Cerúndolo Form and Recent Results

Cerúndolo had an encouraging build-up despite his retirement in Toronto. Before that, he notched solid wins over Etcheverry and Munar, proving his baseline game is translating well to hard courts this summer. The Argentine’s forehand-heavy style, combined with improved movement on hard courts, gives him a clear edge. As long as the Toronto retirement was precautionary and not injury-related, he looks primed to start his US Open campaign strongly.

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Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerúndolo Head to Head

This will be the first meeting between Arnaldi and Cerúndolo on the ATP Tour. Without a direct H2H record, bettors will need to rely on recent form and surface performance as key indicators.

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Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerúndolo Betting Trends

• Arnaldi has lost 4 of his last 5 matches against top-30 opponents on hard courts.
• Cerúndolo has won 3 of his last 4 hard-court matches completed.
• Arnaldi has gone over the total games line in 6 of his last 8 matches.
• Cerúndolo has covered the game handicap in 4 of his last 6 hard-court wins.

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Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerúndolo Expert Pick

Pick: Francisco Cerúndolo to Win (-135)

Cerúndolo is the stronger hard-court player and has proven he can hang with — and beat — quality opposition this summer. His Toronto run showed promise, and while the retirement raised minor questions, the balance of evidence suggests he’s ready for New York. Arnaldi can be pesky, but Cerúndolo’s weapons and experience should carry him through.

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Best Bets for Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerúndolo

• Cerúndolo to Win (-135) — mainline pick
• Cerúndolo -3.5 Games — worth a look if you expect a straight-sets win
• Over 38.5 Games — live if you think Arnaldi can grab a set

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Final Verdict: Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerúndolo Prediction

Arnaldi will make Cerúndolo work, but the Argentine has the superior hard-court form and higher ceiling. This should be a competitive match early, but Cerúndolo’s baseline power and recent confidence edge him into the favorite’s role. The best bet is simply backing Cerúndolo to win.